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5 Fears and Dreams by Sovereign Funds Regarding Trump’s America

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Will Donald Trump’s proposed policies drive up U.S. consumer and business spending – a number of large sovereign funds think so? Could the U.S. reach 4% GDP growth in 2017?

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On January 16th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for the United States over the next two years. Why? The IMF believes Donald Trump’s business policies could be a boon for American economic growth. However, the IMF warned publicly that Trump’s protectionist trade proposals could provoke trade wars, a scary scenario for global sovereign wealth investors. Other concerns by public funds include how a rise in U.S. interest rates could impact asset prices and rapid currency movements in the U.S. dollar.

U.S. Shifting from Monetary Policy Toward Fiscal Policy

During the global financial crisis of 2008, wealth funds were opportunistic, deploying cash to scoop up distressed companies and assets. As quantitative easing (QE) policies dragged on in Japan, the U.S. and Europe, public funds grew frustrated in finding suitable investments. Under U.S. President Barack Obama, the low-yield environment was greatly prolonged, forcing sovereign investors to desire private markets over public markets. Wealth funds like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) have increased allocation toward private credit funds, while funds like Australia’s Future Fund committed to high-yield funds managed by firms like Haymarket Financial, Oaktree Capital Management and Westbourne Credit Management Limited. Wealth funds are anxious to see Trump’s implementation of possible tax cuts, proposed infrastructure plan and de-regulation in certain industries which could summon animal spirits.

Infrastructure Dreams

Faced with low returns in public markets and seeking to lockup intergenerational capital, sovereign funds from Asia and the Gulf region are keen on U.S. infrastructure. They are waiting for national plan. For example, publicly, both the China Investment Corporation (CIC), Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) have indicated a preference to invest in U.S. infrastructure both greenfield and brownfield.

Fear of Protectionism and Trade Restrictions

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Angolan Government Cancels Port Concession, Reviews Others

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Atlantic Ventures SA, which has ties to Isabel dos Santos (daughter to former Angolan president,) lost its concession rights to construct a US$ 1.5 billion port – the Barra do Dande port – near Luanda. [ Content protected for Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute Standard subscribers only. Please subscribe to view content. ]

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Egyptian Parliament Passes Draft Law on Misr Fund

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Egypt’s state news agency revealed the country is forming a sovereign wealth fund with initial capital of 5 billion Egyptian pounds, with 1 billion Egyptian pounds of that amount being immediately transferred from the Egyptian public treasury. [ Content protected for Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute Standard subscribers only. Please subscribe to view content. ]

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Capital Constellation Backs Middle Market PE Platform

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Capital Constellation is the investment platform owned by the Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation (APFC), RPMI Railpen, and Wafra Inc. on behalf of the Public Institution for Social Security of Kuwait (PIFSS). [ Content protected for Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute Standard subscribers only. Please subscribe to view content. ]

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